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Predicting Basketball Winners After Watching the First Half
If you were trying to predict the winner of an NBA game, would you rather know the score at halftime, or which teams are playing?
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Binomial Basketball

March 2024

Predicting NBA Scores Without Any Data
Wrapping up our prior modeling
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Binomial Basketball
Predicting NBA Scores Part 3
Improving some straightforward priors
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Binomial Basketball
4

February 2024

Predicting NBA Scores Part 2
Improving our model's priors
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Binomial Basketball
7
Predicting NBA Scores Part 1
Our baseline model
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Binomial Basketball
6
Player Improvement Modeling
Midway through the season: who is actually improving?
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Binomial Basketball
Probability of NBA overtime over the years
What's the chance tonight's game goes into overtime?
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Binomial Basketball
2

February 2022

Reworking NBA.com's "Percentile" Column
Putting confidence intervals on an overconfident metric
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Binomial Basketball
Player Consistency Modeling
A league-wide survey
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Predicting Sensational Stats, pt 3
Taking a closer look at player consistency.
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How I manage hundreds of NBA models
MLFlow, Stan, git
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2
The Evolution of NBA Shot Selection
When did centers start shooting threes?
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1
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